Emergency Risks in Victoria

Methodology used

The Emergency Risks in Victoria 2023 report was developed using the Victorian Emergency Risk Assessment (VERA) Methodology. The VERA uses this method to understand what risks exist in our landscape and the strategies, activities and resources government and agencies have in place to proactively manage the risk.

The VERA Methodology is consistent with other risk assessment process such as the National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines (NERAG) and Australian Standards AS/NZS ISO31000:2018 Risk Management - principles and guidelines.

Controls

Victoria has many well-developed risk reduction measures and capabilities in place to mitigate and prepare for emergencies. These can be actions, structures and/or investments to reduce emergency risk.

Measures to reduce state-level emergencies risks tend to focus on:

understanding the hazard and related exposures
preventing the emergency from occurring, where possible
detection and warnings
reducing the consequences of the emergency when it occurs, for example, through response and recovery
community engagement.

In this process these measures are referred to as ‘controls’ and are grouped under Mitigation, Response and Recovery. Information on the specific controls in place for each emergency are listed in the report.

Table 8: Mitigation activities and agencies for managing Victoria’s significant emergency risks, by emergency of the State Emergency Management Plan details the activities and participating agencies for managing Victoria’s significant emergency risks.

Climate change in Victoria

Long-term observed records show that Victoria’s climate is changing under the influence of both natural variability and global warming.

The average temperature across the state has warmed by just over 1.0°C since official Bureau of Meteorology records began in 1910. Climate projections suggest that Victoria will continue to become warmer and drier in the future.

Over the past 30 years, Victoria’s cool season rainfall has declined compared to last century. Annual rainfall is projected to decrease across the state, due to declines across autumn, winter and spring.

There has been an increase in dangerous fire weather and in the length of the fire season across southern Australia since the 1950s. In the future Victoria is likely to have a significantly lengthened fire season with the number of very high fire danger days likely to continue to increase.

Mean sea level for Melbourne (recorded at Williamstown) has risen by approximately 2 mm per year since 1966. Sea levels along the Victorian coast are also likely to continue to rise.

Source: Victoria State Government 2019, Victoria’s Climate Science Report 2019 (External link).

Summary of results

Victoria has a long history of emergencies, some of them highly destructive where a plan for dealing with such events has been developed, others are emerging emergencies with little known information.

The emergencies identified in the Emergency Risks in Victoria 2023 publication are those seen to have the greatest risk and consequences for Victoria over the next 5 years:

bushfire
cyber security emergency
earthquake
electricity supply disruption
emergency animal disease (foot and mouth disease)
emergency plant pest (Xylella fastidiosa)
flood
gas supply disruption
hazardous materials incident
health emergency (thunderstorm asthma)
heat event
maritime emergency (non-search and rescue)
mine emergency
space weather incident
storm
tsunami
viral (respiratory) pandemic
water supply disruption.

Next steps

The emergency management sector will continue to monitor the emergency risk environment and update the Emergency Risks in Victoria document as required with new information, emerging risks and lessons learnt.